Sunday, October 28, 2012

copper thieves - and other infrastructure parasites - will have to be executed on sight!

theautomaticearth | Renewable energy is never going to be a strategy for continuing on our present expansionist path. It is not a good fit for the central station model of modern power systems, and threatens to destabilize them, limiting rather than extending our ability to sustain business as usual. The current plans attempt to develop it in the most technologically complex, capital and infrastructure dependent manner, mostly dependent on government largesse that is about to disappear. It is being deployed in a way that minimizes a low energy profit ratio, when that ratio is already likely too low to sustain a society complex enough to produce energy in this fashion.

Renewable electricity is not truly renewable, thanks to non-renewable integral components. It can be deployed for a period of time in such a way as to cushion the inevitable transition to a lower energy society. To do this, it makes sense to capitalize on renewable energy's inherent advantages while minimizing its disadvantages. Minimizing the infrastructure requirement, by producing power adjacent to demand, and therefore moving power as little distance as possible, will make the most of the energy profit ratio. The simplest strategy is generally the most robust, but all the big plans for renewables have gone in the opposite direction. In moving towards hugely complex mechanisms for wheeling gargantuan quantities of power over long distances, we create a system that is highly brittle and prone to cascading system failure.

In a period of sharp economic contraction, we will not be able to afford expensive complexity. Having set up a very vulnerable system, we are going to have to accept that the the lights are not necessarily going to come on every time we flick a switch. Our demand will be much lower for a while, as economic depression deepens, and that may buy the system some time by lowering some of the stresses upon it. The lack of investment will take its toll over time however.

While a grid can function at some level even under very challenging conditions - witness India - it is living on borrowed time. We would do well to learn from the actions, and daily frustrations, of those who live under grid-challenged conditions, and do what we can to build resilience at a community level. Governments and large institutions will not be able to do this at a large scale, so we must act locally.

As with many aspects of society navigating a crunch period, decentralization can be the most appropriate response. The difficulty is that there will be little time or money to build micro-grids based on local generation. It may work in a few places blessed with resources such as a local hydro station, but likely not elsewhere in the time available. The next best solution will be minimizing demand in advance, and obtaining back up generators and local storage capacity, as they use in India and many other places with unstable grids. These are relatively affordable and currently readily available solutions, but do require some thought, such as fuel storage or determining which are essential loads that should be connected to batteries and inverters with a limited capacity. Later on, such solutions are much less likely to be available, so acting quickly is important.

Minimizing demand in a planned manner greatly reduces dependency, so that limited supply can serve the most essential purposes. It is much better than reducing demand haphazardly through deprivation in the depths of a crisis. Providing a storage component can cover grid downtime, so that one no longer has to worry so much when the power will be available, so long as it is there for some time each day. Given that even degraded systems starved of investment for years can deliver something, storage can provide a degree of peace of mind. It is typically safer than storing generator fuel.

Some will be able to install renewable generation, but it will not make sense to do this with debt on the promise of a feed-in tariff contract that stands to be repudiated. Those who can afford it will be those who can do it with no debt and no income stream, in other words those who do it for the energy security rather than for the money, and do not over-stretch themselves in the process. Sadly this will be very few people. Pooling resources in order to act at a community scale can increase the possibilities, although it may be difficult to convince enough people to participate.

It is difficult to say what power grids might look like following an economic depression, or what it will be possible to restore in the years to come. The answers are likely to vary widely with location and local circumstances. Depression years are very hard on vital economic sectors such as energy supply. Falling demand undercuts price support, and prices fall more quickly than the cost of production, so that margins are brutally squeezed. Even as prices fall, purchasing power falls faster, so that affordability gets worse. Consumers are squeezed, leading to further demand destruction in a positive feedback loop.

Under these circumstances, the energy sector is likely to be starved of investment for many years. When the economy tries to recover, it is likely to find itself hitting a hard ceiling at a much lower level of energy supply. With less energy available, society will not be able to climb the heights of complexity again, and therefore many former energy sources dependent on complex means of production will not longer be available to simpler future societies. Widespread electrification may well be a casualty of the complexity crash.
We are likely to realize at that point just how unusual the era of high energy profit ratio fossil fuels really was, and what incredible benefits we had in our hands. Sadly we squandered much of this inheritance before realizing its unique and irreplaceable value. The future will look very different.

25 comments:

Big Don said...

Overpopulation -- Shutddown the OOW Breeders and Paasites....

CNu said...

co-sign shutdown of OOW breeding and parasitization.

arnach said...

I dunno—looks like accidental suicide (not execution) to me, as in what happens when some ID10Ts try to steal copper wires that are multi-kV HOT!

CNu said...

That wasn't really ever in question. The point of the title is that grids are massively internally dependent upon the integrity of their constituent participants, and will become ever more so as they begin to contract and be re-engineered. To that end, the severity of the punishments meted out should conform to the severity of the consequences (unintended or otherwise) that will ensue as a result of purely self-interested parasitization.

Michael Varian Daly said...

By 'shutdown' do you mean put them out on the street to starve? Or do you advocate more active measures, like shipping them to extermination camps?

Big Don said...

Orderly phase-out of all means-tested programs (e.g., SNAP, EBT, Medicaid, Obamaphones, etc) over a period of, say, 5 years....

Michael Varian Daly said...

So then put them out on the street to starve. Yeah, I didn't think you had the stones to address the issue honestly.

Michael Varian Daly said...

BTW there is no such thing as an 'Obamaphone'.

CNu said...

The time-tested and publicly-approved American way is slow attrition. http://subrealism.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-removal-of-native-americans-and.html - loading up trains and putting on industrial-scale horror shows won't fly. OTOH, a very thorough, enduring, and most probably unrecoverable genocide can be effected just out of public view in the liminal recesses of collective awareness.

Michael Varian Daly said...

Ah yes, offering up the pattern of genocide of indigenous peoples as solution to domestic socioeconomic issues is always the way to go. Voting for Mittens I take it. ;)

Michael Varian Daly said...

One thing that confuses me though. You speak critically of Fascism, yet its methodologies appear to warm your heart.

CNu said...

lol, tap.your.brakes MVD. I am a student of history and ethology.

Fascism appears to be a very popular behavior amongst these killer-apes when under material and economic stress. My own preferences tend toward a fremen/samurai ethos minus the racism - which as I understand things - would disqualify me from the ranks of proper fascists.

Now, if you ask me whether or not I believe that the bourgeois cultural formation of the past 90 years or so has any prospect of enduring the next 90 years, the answer is a resounding NO!!! Back to the feudal we all will go.

Big Don said...

...No ObamaPhone...??
Here's the latest awesome re-mix for y'all who can't unnerstand anything if it's not in a catchy Rap_Format...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ax-2i71bqGw&NR (may hafta SKIP thru an ad)

Gee Chee Vision said...

BD, you're compromising the mission. It's about us vs. the rest of the world brother. You can't go on like this wishing destruction to NY and making fun of your fellow black country men. Whatever music get's BD's spirits up- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEhwIqmmEJY - let's just commit to unifying for this noble cause.

Michael Varian Daly said...

Internet Rule #44) Even one positive comment about Japanese stuff is enough to make you a weeaboo

CNu said...

"Internet Rule"?!?!?!



rotflmbao..., does your mommy know that you play with her iPad before she goes to work in the morning little girl?

Michael Varian Daly said...

NEWLY IMPOSED RULES OF THE INTERNETS! [well, from 2007]

ANONYMOUS HAS SIGNED THEM INTO LAW ALREADYS.

1) Do not talk about /b/.
2) Do NOT talk about /b/.
3) We are anonymous
4) Anonymous is legion
5) Anonymous never forgives
6) Anonymous can be a horrible, senseless, uncaring monster
7) Anonymous is still able to deliver
8) There are no real rules about posting
9) There are no real rules about moderation either - enjoy your ban
10) If you enjoy any rival sites - DON'T
11) All your carefully picked arguments can be easily ignored
12) Anything you say can and will be used against you
13) Anything you say can be turned into something else
14) Do not argue with trolls - it means that they win
15) The harder you try the harder you will fail
16) If you fail hard enough it may just become a winning fail
17) Every win fails eventually
18) Everything that can be labeled can be hated
19) The more you hate it the stronger it gets
20) Nothing is to be taken seriously
21) Original content is only original for a few seconds before getting old
22) Copypasta is made to ruin every last bit of originality
23) Copypasta is made to ruin every last bit of originality
24) Every repost is always a repost of a repost
25) Relation to the original topic decreases with every single post
26) Any topic can be easily turned into something completely unrelated
27) Always question a person's sexual preferences without any real reason
28) Always question a person's gender - just in case it's really a man
29) In the internet all girls are men and all kids are undercover FBI agents
30) There are no girls on the internet
31) TITS or GTFO - it's your choice
32) You must have pictures to prove your statements
33) Lurk more - it's never enough
34) There is porn of it, no exceptions
35) If no porn is found at the moment, it will be made
36) There will always be even more fucked up shit than what you just saw
37) You cannot divide by zero (just because the calculator says so)
38) No real limits of any kind apply here - not even the sky
39) CAPSLOCK IS CRUISE CONTROL FOR COOL
40) EVEN WITH CRUISE CONTROL YOU STILL HAVE TO STEER
41) Desu isn't funny. Seriously guys. It's worse than Chuck Norris jokes.
42) Nothing is Sacred
43) The more beautiful and pure a thing is - the more satisfying it is to corrupt it
44) Even one positive comment about Japanese stuff is enough to make you a weeaboo
45) When one sees a lion, one must get into the car.
46) There is always furry porn of it.


If you don't believe me, just Google 'Rule 34'. =)


And BTW, these are the guys that took on Scientology and now hack The Corporate State.

Michael Varian Daly said...

Also...I'm an Olwd Skool Troll and that 'girly/mommy' stuff is really light weight, like Grade School playground. Up yer game.



I'm an openly bi-sexual Bondage Master, so all the 'question my masculinity' shit is pretty much a waste of time. If you ever wanna be my Bitch Boy, I'd be happy to Collar you, but you'd have to ride bare-back.


My mother is an alcoholic Beverly Hills matron who sleeps with a PPK under her pillow. I'm eighteen years Sober, so we really don't talk.



And just because your racial animus is projected self hate does not make it any less Racist, just more sad.

CNu said...

Lol, look at you Mary, lip poked out, stewing for days, and back here on your knees in my confessional...,

Dale Asberry said...

Or....... the massive naked dependencies on the existing grid are nothing but folly and those that parasitize it are doing us all a favor by forcing other, less exposed options into consideration.

Michael Varian Daly said...

This is recreation that distracts me from my real problems. But you're pretty boring I gotta say. Still running the grade school taunts. Disappointing, especially since I gave you so much material to work with. Oh well....

Dale Asberry said...

This response tells me that you're real problem is you're about 30 seconds from jumping off a roof or stepping in front of a bus. Broken machines are of no concern to CNu. See to that broken machine and come back later -- maybe then you'll have a better understanding of what's happening here.

CNu said...

sigh..., remember when somebody showed themselves the door a few of years ago? http://mrigmaiden.blogspot.com/2012/05/demons-of-lust-greed-perversion-and.html#links

Big Don said...

.... at least appears their baby survived the pit bull, now can he survive the Culture...??

Dale Asberry said...

Niiiiiiice

When Zakharova Talks Men Of Culture Listen...,

mid.ru  |   White House spokesman John Kirby’s statement, made in Washington shortly after the attack, raised eyebrows even at home, not ...